Christine Lagarde, directora-geral do FMI Fonte: Bloomberg
Multiplicam-se os estudos publicados por economistas do FMI a favor de reduções suaves do défice orçamental quando as economias enfrentam recessões graves. Os resultados da investigação do Fundo ganharam especial destaque num recente debate sobre multiplicadores orçamentais. O tema mantém-se na agenda por um crescente receio de que as estratégia de redução de défices na Europa se derrote a si própria, empurrando a a região para a recessão e várias economias, incluindo a portuguesa, para uma situação de insustentabilidade da dívida pública.
Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues no Expresso destaca hoje os resultados de um estudo de três economistas do FMI que concluem que os multiplicadores orçamentais são maiores em períodos recessivos. Isto quer dizer que a despesa pública pode especialmente benéfica durante as recessões e que reduções de impostos podem ter pouco efeito em momentos de expansão económica. Estas conclusões são favoráveis a consolidações orçamentais mais graduais.
Este é na verdade apenas o último estudo de vários publicados este ano por economistas do FMI que apontam no mesmo sentido (embora em vários casos se considere também que países ameaçados por problemas de sustentabilidade da dívida ou de acesso a mercados devem continuar com políticas de austeridade – como aliás também defendeu Olivier Blanchard no artigo sobre multiplicadores orçamentais que tanta polémica deu em Portugal).
Aqui ficam ligações para vários artigos publicados na série de “Working Papers” do FMI:
Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy
Baum, Anja ; Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos ; Weber, Anke
December 05, 2012
Os três economistas avisam que uma vez que os multiplicadores são mais elevados em recessão, poderá fazer sentido uma abordagem mais gradual ao ajustamento orçamental:
Only a few empirical studies have analyzed the relationship between fiscal multipliers and the underlying state of the economy. This paper investigates this link on a country-by-country basis for the G7 economies (excluding Italy). Our results show that fiscal multipliers differ across countries, calling for a tailored use of fiscal policy. Moreover, the position in the business cycle affects the impact of fiscal policy on output: on average, government spending, and revenue multipliers tend to be larger in downturns than in expansions. This asymmetry has implications for the choice between an upfront fiscal adjustment versus a more gradual approach.
Public Debt Dynamics: The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks
Cherif, Reda ; Hasanov, Fuad
September 01, 2012
Considerando apenas a economia norte-americana, os dois economistas do FMI avisam que os choques de austeridade têm poucos ou nenhuns efeitos sobre o “stock” de dívida e que, em recessão, podem mesmo ser contraproducentes:
We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path.
Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan
Batini, Nicoletta ; Callegari, Giovanni ; Melina, Giovanni
July 01, 2012
É um dos artigos mais claros na defesa das consolidações orçamentais suaves como estratégia para redução dos “stocks” de dívida: “as consolidações mais suaves e graduais devem ser preferidas a consolidações agressivas, especialmente em economias em recessão enfrentando elevados prémios de risco na sua dívida pública”
The output effects of 2009 fiscal expansions have been hotly debated. But the discussion of fiscal multipliers is even more relevant now that several European countries have had to quickly retract their stimulus measures in an effort to regain market confidence. Using regime-switching VARs we estimate the impact of fiscal adjustment on the United States, Europe and Japan allowing for fiscal multipliers to vary across recessions and booms. We also estimate ex ante probabilities of recessions derived in association with different-sized and different types of consolidation shocks (expenditure- versus tax-based). We use these estimates to understand how consolidations should be designed to be most effective in terms of permanently and rapidly reducing a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio. The main finding is that smooth and gradual consolidations are to be preferred to frontloaded or aggressive consolidations, especially for economies in recession facing high risk premia on public debt, because sheltering growth is key to the success of fiscal consolidation in these cases.
What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?
Corsetti, Giancarlo ; Meier, André ; Müller, Gernot
June 01, 2012
Os economistas concluem que os multiplicadores orçamentais são mais elevados em tempos de crise, mas também que em termos históricos é frequente que os países adoptem medidas de austeridade para tentar combater os problemas de sustentabilidade da dívida pública:
This paper studies how the effects of government spending vary with the economic environment. Using a panel of OECD countries, we identify fiscal shocks as residuals from an estimated spending rule and trace their macroeconomic impact under different conditions regarding the exchange rate regime, public indebtedness, and health of the financial system. The unconditional responses to a positive spending shock broadly confirm earlier findings. However, conditional responses differ systematically across exchange rate regimes, as real appreciation and external deficits occur mainly under currency pegs. We also find output and consumption multipliers to be unusually high during times of financial crisis
A second finding with direct policy implications concerns the marked increase in fiscal multipliers during times of financial crisis. On the one hand, this may be taken as evidence in support of fiscal stimulus during times of acute financial stress. On the other hand, our empirical results also show that many countries have historically cut back government spending during financial crises, presumably out of concern over debt sustainability. In this sense, a large conditional multiplier provides a stark warning about the costs of financial turmoil and an argument in favor of building up fiscal buffers in normal times so as to avoid fiscal retrenchment when it is most painful.
Walking Hand in Hand: Fiscal Policy and Growth in Advanced Economies
Cottarelli, Carlo ; Jaramillo, Laura
May 01, 2012
Carlo Cottarelli e Laura Jaramillo avisam que austeridade a mais pode atrasar os resultados pretendidos, mas defendem também que países sob pressão dos mercados não têm outras hipóteses que não consolidar:
Implementation of fiscal consolidation by advanced economies in coming years needs to take into account the short and long-run interactions between economic growth and fiscal policy. Many countries must reduce high public debt to GDP ratios that penalize longterm growth. However, fiscal adjustment is likely to hurt growth in the short run, delaying improvements in fiscal indicators, including deficits, debt, and financing costs. Revenue and expenditure policies are also critical in affecting productivity and employment growth. This paper discusses the complex relationships between fiscal policy and growth both in the short and in the long run.
countries subject to market pressures have little choice but to undertake frontloaded fiscal adjustment measures, due to a lack of adequate financing at reasonable rates as well as to political constraints. In these cases, and in light of the feedback loops between growth and fiscal policy discussed above, it is particularly important that fiscal consolidation be accompanied by the availability of adequate financing to provide confidence and help keep financing costs down until the effects of the adjustment on the fiscal accounts materialize. The recent strengthening of European and global firewalls is particularly useful in this perspective.
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