Já se sabia que colocar três organismos com histórias e objectivos tão diferentes como o FMI, BCE e Comissão Europeia a trabalhar juntos não seria fácil. Mas até aqui, pelo menos, os três conseguiram, com sucesso relativo, ocultar as divergências de fundo e transmitir uma mensagem coerente para a opinião pública. Só na polémica em torno da desvalorização fiscal foi impossível esconder as opiniões contrastantes de FMI e Comissão.

 

A terceira avaliação do Programa de Ajustamento de Portugal parece ter marcado o ponto de cisão a partir do qual estes dois organismos assumem claramente as suas diferenças. Agora, a “troika” tem dois discursos – se não oficialmente, pelo menos na prática. Em baixo colocamos alguns excertos da avaliação do FMI, que não batem certo com a ideia de uma “implementação extraordinária do programa por parte do Governo”, que foi o tom deixado de véspera por Peter Weiss, da Comissão.

 

1. Despite this progress, however, formidable challenges remain. (…) there is still much fiscal adjustment to be effected this year and next. On the structural reform front, product market reform and liberalization is only now getting started, and the labor market reforms to date could yet prove insufficient to close the prevailing competiveness gap.

 

2. But there was also recognition that the headwinds to regaining market access in 2013 meant that much work needed to be done to enhance the credibility of the program and market confidence. This included redoubling efforts to avoid fiscal slippages, particularly in 2012 when the recession is set to deepen, and timely implementation of structural reforms.

 

3. While the improvement in the current account deficit last year is encouraging, staff did not think that the same pace of adjustment could be sustained absent deeper reforms that would foster a more immediate supply-side response in the tradable sector. Accordingly, staff noted the need to quickly identify policy measures that would help replace the gap left by the decision to not pursue fiscal devaluation.

 

4. The reforms to date, however, are at best a down payment towards the comprehensive set of reforms needed to address Portugal’s growth and competitiveness problems. Specifically, much more effort is needed to clear the backlog on product market reforms, particularly in the non-tradable sectors.

 

5. The policy framework in particular remains constrained by the absence of supply-side reforms with a near-term payoff. An alternative policy package to the fiscal devaluation earlier proposed by staff would considerably improve growth prospects (…) In its absence, the program unavoidably relies on front loaded fiscal adjustment, increasing the risk of undermining growth in the near-term. So far, this lethal spiral has largely been avoided, including on account of the strong export performance in 2011 (…) staff calls on the authorities to continue urgently exploring swiftly implementable alternatives to the fiscal devaluation that would tilt the relative price structure in the economy towards tradable activities, and reduce the risks of a purely demand-driven adjustment.